Happy Birthday, America!

I forgot America's birthday. I have had a bad string of forgetting birthdays this year, in fact, I think I was off by a few days or entirely absent from nearly all my loved ones' birthdays in the past 12 months. (Someone needs to more closely review her Anderson family calendar...)
But to forget America's birthday and have to be reminded by my Austrian co-workers, that is really sad!

It's cold and rainy in Austria today, which conjures up no warm memories of fireworks and bratwursts on Clear Lake, and for which, I partially blame my forgetfulness of America's special day. But now that I have it in mind, I am set on finding America's Bud of choice tonight at some Austrian pub. I won't rest until an American beer is in my hand, which may be somewhat difficult considering the ubiquity (and undeniably higher quality) of German and Austrian brews here.

I am also in a fortuitous situation to report on two books I recently finished! Both detail America's place in current affairs and neither is overly optimistic about the continued supremacy of today's celebrated superpower.

The first, The End of the American Era, by Charles A. Kupchan, describes America's current place in the world through historical analysis of the rise and fall of past powers and subsequent changes to the international balance of power. First published in 2002, I read a version with an updated 2003 introduction. (It's difficult to read what should be current analysis of foreign affairs even just a few years post-publication. For example, his 2003 preface inexplicably celebrates our victory in Iraq. ?) But timeliness aside, Kupchan does offer many insights as to the historical inevitability of America's fall from supremacy in world affairs. In his view, the strengthening of the EU will allow a united Europe to become a force for multipolarity in the near future. But this theory is absent an analysis of the failed 2005 constitutional referendum. Even last week's treaty agreement was lackluster in terms of developing necessary political and military force to compare to the United States. It's definitely not going to happen for awhile. Kupchan also notes the rise of India and China as major players in the world's economy, but downplays their importance as geopolitical powers.

This, I think, is where Thomas Friedman, would have to sorely disagree. My former Bethesda neighbor was one of the first to publish a description of the forces of globalization in "The Lexus and the Olive Tree." (Incidentally, his is one of the theories of current geopolitics Kupchan debunks for not taking historical analysis well enough into account.) I also recently finished an updated version of The World Is Flat, which continues his analysis of the changes globalization is rendering to the world's political balance. Frankly, I am more convinced by Friedman than Kupchan.

In the flat world Friedman describes, India and China are very much threats to the unipolarity of American power, but this is not necessarily the realist's nightmare Kupchan would make it out to be. Rather than seeing states in constant struggle for supremacy, Friedman cites the opening of markets as a force for positive relations, better living conditions, and improved health outcomes for all. His pessimism towards our birthday state, however, comes from two main weaknesses: a shortage of students pursuing education in the sciences and a continued dependency on foreign oil sources. As a student, I can't say Friedman didn't make me wish I had a couple more math and science courses under my belt. His discussion of China and India's investments into education and development of human capital was fascinating.

America as a vanguard for new ideas and concepts stands to benefit a great deal from the flat world. As long as, that is, we remain competitive as creators of the concepts that drive global innovation. However, both Kupchan and Friedman are worried, rightly I think, that America is now in its third generation of wealth, which means we're more the Paris Hiltons of the Hotel Dynasty than the Richards. Both realize that America has the ability to remain a power and force for hope in the world, but each points out changes all Americans could make to support our country's continued position of security and freedom in the next century.